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Channel: Pranjul Bhandari – The Financial Express
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Will india make it – 2016? How to revive Investment

Govt capex and growth in consumption together could revive India's investment cycle – eventually The post Will india make it – 2016? How to revive Investment appeared first on The Financial Express.

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Column: India’s GDP to auto-correct

As prices normalise, GDP overestimation will narrow The post Column: India’s GDP to auto-correct appeared first on The Financial Express.

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Monetary policy review highlights inflation outlook uncertainty

The RBI held on to its 5.1% CPI inflation forecast for January-March 2017, but highlighted that there were upside risks now versus the scope for downside surprise last time. The post Monetary policy...

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GST rate impact: Here’s how the new tax can carry a greater punch

The government, over the last few days, finalised GST rates that could blunt the reform’s growth impact. It has decided on multiple tax rates and exemptions, moving further away from an ‘ideal’...

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Riding a wave: A case can be made that, for credibility sake, RBI needs to...

Watching India’s inflation trends these days gets us humming The Doors’ 1967 popular single, ‘Break on through to the other side’. The post Riding a wave: A case can be made that, for credibility sake,...

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Farm crisis: Landless may be better off, but landed are worse off; here is...

The state of India’s rural economy is puzzling. There is enough evidence to support both opposing statements: one, that the rural economy has improved, and two, that the rural economy is in the...

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Is 4 pct inflation new normal? The rise back up may not be too sharp either

We have said this before, and have found new evidence since. Inflation in India has fallen dramatically, and while the excessively low levels of FY18 may not be sustainable as some of the drivers are...

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States’ Finances & FRBM Goals: Tied to the mast, but loosely

State deficits are set to narrow, though marginally, in FY19. But the debt-bill cloud looms large while the drag from govt finances will have its bearing on growth.

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FRBM targets: NHPS, higher MSPs a drag on debt goal

Even doubling current consolidation efforts won’t help. However, setting the GST right could raise the necessary revenues to meet the debt target.

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Storm before the lull: Inflation will surge in FY19, cool off the year after

RBI may hike rates as soon as August as FY19 inflation rises, on the back of MSP-hikes, rising crude prices, etc. the case for further hikes in FY20 is weak as the pressures abate

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Growth outlook: India’s GDP growth likely to hit 7.5% by end-2019

Depending on the global environment, potential growth could rise meaningfully from 2020, led by higher investment and growth dividends from recent reforms.

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RBI Monetary Policy Review: Hold rate hike? No, it should be done sooner...

A constantly changing growth and inflation nexus, and delays in monetary transmission, suggest the rate decision in the upcoming RBI policy meeting on October 5 should be assessed over a multi-year...

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Domestic infrastructure: Fix land and labour related regulatory hurdles to...

With slowing world growth, the falling ` won’t help. improve domestic infra, ease the regulatory hurdles in acquiring land and hiring labour

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Ailing NBFCs, fiscal gaps offset oil, tame inflation gains

In the last three years, NBFCs (here we also include the housing finance companies) accounted for nearly a third of incremental credit.

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Falling rural demand: The rural-urban inflation divide to the fore

Improvement in rural wages is not good enough. It is just a return to trend growth after lying below it for a while, and more importantly, trend growth is falling.

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GDP numbers: Statistics Office’s single deflation practice behind...

Instead of deflating output and input with their respective prices, the statistics agency deflates both with a common output deflator. Therefore, when input and output prices are moving in opposite...

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Fiscal math: Additional spending on rural India may keep 60 pct public...

There is no agency in the government that looks comprehensively at both Central and state, fiscal costs and revenues, and relating them to the fiscal rules that the country has enacted.

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Fiscal forecast: What budget 2019 could offer?

Budget details will influence upcoming monetary policy action and will focus on rural India and continued support for MSMEs.

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The enigmatic finances of India’s states

India’s public sector borrowings remain sticky and at elevated levels; however, the underlying mix has been changing. The period FY13-17 was characterised by the Central government lowering its fiscal...

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Food price rise: How RBI can still find room to ease

The sharp rise in the price of vegetables since August seems to have driven much of the spike in inflation. This was not a big surprise.

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